Comparison of the CAPM, the Fama-French Three Factor Model and Modifications

Seminar paper from the year 2014 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 6,0 (Schweizer Notensystem), University of Liechtenstein, fruher Hochschule Liechtenstein, language: English, abstract: This paper is focused on comparing the Capital Asset Pricing Model, the Fama-French Three Factor model and two modified versions of the Fama-French Model in their ability to explain excess returns. The first modified model contains the same explanatory variables as the Fama-French Model but with an additional AR(1) process. The second modification contains instead of an additional AR(1) an AR(2) process. Evaluated by the adjusted R(2) and the Akaike information criterion, the Fama-French model yields a higher model-fit than the CAPM. The modified Fama-French Model with an AR(2) process leads to significant results for the twice lagged return in the model in four out of six tested portfolios. Therefore, the in-sample regression reveals a higher model-fit of the modified Fama-French model with AR(2) in comparison to the other three models. Since the results differ from a regression in the subsequent period, the results are most likely spurious. Nevertheless, the authors show the high-er model-fit of the Fama-French Three Factor Model in relation to the CAPM.