Prediction Model for Stock Excess Returns on Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange

Thesis (M.A.) from the year 2018 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 72, language: English, abstract: Predictability of financial and macroeconomic variables is an interesting topic for a lot of previous studies. This study is also one of them which carried out to examine the relationship between stock excess returns and seven financial ratios as well as macroeconomic variables. Only the listed companies on Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange from three industries - Industrials, Basic Materials and Consumer Goods - that are researched within the Vietnamese stock market during the period 2013-2017. The result brings out over 62% of the posibility to predict stock excess returns of the chosen factors which are Total asset turnover, Earning per share and Return on equity. In contract, the relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock excess return is barely observed so they are excluded from the final model. This thesis uses quantitative method with Linear Regression and Logistic Regression as the main models and stepwise method is applied to run the models. Furthermore, there is also a great support of CAPM to classify the GOOD and POOR group of stocks. Besides, the association of Microsoft Excel and SPSS is applied throughout the process of collecting and analyzing data.