Denial Without Disaster–Keeping a U.S.-China Conflict Over Taiwan Under the Nuclear Threshold

As a result of China's secure second-strike nuclear retaliatory capability, the United States must now, more than ever, consider how to tailor its conventional military operations to avoid triggering Chinese nuclear first use. In this report--part of a series--the authors consider the potential thresholds and drivers of Chinese nuclear first use in a conflict scenario in the context of China's evolving nuclear force posture and ongoing nuclear buildup.