Reporting data and predicting trends through the 2008 campaign, this classroom-tested volume offers again James E. Campbell’s
theory of the predictable campaign,
incorporating the fundamental conditions that systematically affect the presidential vote: political competition, presidential incumbency, and election-year economic conditions. Campbell’s cogent thinking and clear style present students with a readable survey of presidential elections and political scientists’ ways of studying them.
The American Campaign
also shows how and why journalists have mistakenly assigned a pattern of unpredictability and critical significance to the vagaries of individual campaigns. This excellent election-year text provides: a summary and assessment of each of the serious predictive models of presidential election outcomes; a historical summary of many of America’s important presidential elections; and a significant new contribution to the understanding of presidential campaigns and how they matter.