Forecasting the Health of Elderly Populations

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Models to forecast changes in mortality, morbidity, and disability in elderly populations are essential to national and state policies for health and welfare programs. This volume presents a wide-ranging survey of the forecasting of health of elderly populations, including the modelling of the incidence of chronic diseases in the elderly, the differing perspectives of actuarial and health care statistics, and an assessment of the impact of new technologies on the elderly population. Amongst the topics covered are - uncertainties in projections from census and social security data and actuarial approaches to forecasting - plausible ranges for population growth using biol ogical models and epidemiological time series data - the financing of long term care programs - the effects of major disabling diseases on health expenditures - forecasting cancer risks and risk factors As a result, this wide-ranging volume will become an indispensable reference for all those whose research touches on these topics.