International Finance Discussion Papers

Graciela L Kaminsky,Carmen M Reinhart

International Finance Discussion Papers
Format
Paperback
Publisher
Bibliogov
Country
United States
Published
8 February 2013
Pages
34
ISBN
9781288734399

International Finance Discussion Papers

Graciela L Kaminsky,Carmen M Reinhart

In the wake of the ERM and Mexican currency crises, the subject of balance-of-payments crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper focuses on the potential links between banking and balance-of-payments crises. We examine these episodes for a large number of countries and find that knowing that there are banking problems helps in predicting balance-of-payments crises, but the converse is not true; financial liberalization usually predates banking crises, indeed, it helps predict them. Rather than a causal relationship from banking to balance-of-payments crises, the macroeconomic \“stylized facts\” that characterize these episodes point to common causes.

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