Space Power - The Next 50 Years: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Military Space Superiority Strategies

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the next 50 years of space power by contemplating the future space superiority challenges that the US military will face. Although it will address the larger aspect of space power as it relates to all US space sectors and instruments of national power, the paper is primarily concerned with strategic implications and future space superiority challenges as they relate to the US military. After providing an overview of scenario planning, the paper uses a scenario planning process to frame the focal issue of space superiority, describe driving forces that influence this issue, develop four plausible future scenarios, use those scenarios to outline some space superiority implications and strategies for the US military, and finally discuss some leading indicators that may help provide early warning of whether a particular future scenario is actually approaching. Scenarios developed in this paper can be used as a framework for an interagency and multi-disciplinary strategic conversation on space superiority strategies to help ensure US freedom of action in space for the next 50 years.