Theoretical Models for Aircraft Availability: Classical Approach to Identification of Trends, Seasonality, and System Constraints in the Development of Realized Models

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Current forecasting methods of the Air Mobility Command (AMC) Directorate of Logistics are exceedingly reliant on the career experience of personnel involved and lead to after the fact analysis that are labor intensive. These deficiencies led AMC to approach the Air Force Research Laboratory with a desire for the development of a Mobility Aircraft Availability Forecasting (MAAF) model. The purpose of the proposed MAAF model is threefold: predict aircraft availability (mission ready aircraft) in order to provide the Tanker Airlift Control Center (TACC) with a monthly forecast of the number of aircraft that will be available to fulfill AMC mission requirements, provide what if capabilities that analyze the effects of mission, tasking, and policy changes, and to provide foresight into problems associated with aircraft availability (Briggs, 2003b).