2035 Biodeterrence: Problems and Promises for Biodefense

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Can the U.S. deter nation, group, or individual actors from employing bioweapons in 2035? The intent of this paper is to inform the debate and influence the way the U.S. thinks about bio-defense. At the very least the paper aims to better understand the problem by looking at deterrence for nations, groups, and even individual actors from employing bioweapons. The paper illuminates the potential stakes involved in a future bioattack, and it characterizes where the world of accelerating technology, communication, and information will likely lead the U.S., relative to further exploration for the efficacies of deterrence. It explores various realms for potential deterrence strategies by examining the roots, driving forces, and potential actors and examines potential methods to further support deterrence from dissuasion to sovereign enforcement. Given the current strain on the US national treasury from both domestic economic issues and heavy war bills, the strategy of deterrence coupled with transparency has great promise and warrants closer examination.