How Will the United States Withdrawal from the Republic of Korea Affect Japan’s National Security?

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This study examines the impact of the United States ground troop withdrawal from the Republic of Korea on Japan’s national security. Japan’s vital interests, her Self-Defense Force, and the status of the United States-Japan security treaty provide a basis for analyzing her current national security program. The effect of the withdrawal is weighed against America’s changing role in Asia and Japan’s perception of the threat in East Asia. Based upon the Japanese assessment of these developments, six major options have been examined as choices for Japan as she responds to the changes in this region. In the final analysis, it is anticipated that the United States withdrawal of ground troops in the short-term will not be significant. As long as the United States-Japan security treaty is credible and continues to serve as the cornerstone in this relationship, Japan’s national security structure will remain relatively unchanged. In the long-term, however, it is probable that Japan will take precautionary steps to obviate the outbreak of hostilities. In the event of another armed conflict on the Korean peninsula, the most likely option for Japan will be a selective and conventional course of rearmament involving the continuation of her incremental advances and improvements in her current force structure.