Csat Occasional Paper No. 68, Discord or Harmonious Society?

With its ancient cultural roots intact, the government of China, regarded by many of its people as having a “mandate of heaven,” is leading China into the future at almost blinding speed. Within the time frame covered in this monograph, China will supplant the United States as the greatest economic power on Earth. While its military capabilities are expected to lag slightly behind, by 2030 China will be, for all practical purposes, a peer of the United States in terms of its ability to influence interactions within the nation-state system. That China will be an adversary is not a foregone conclusion. Neither is its friendship. While this study concludes that it is China’s intent to seek mutually beneficial relations with the West, internal forces have the potential to drive China toward conflict. Should this occur, the most likely outcome would be a proxy war, where US and Chinese interests could clash.