Interpreting China’s Grand Strategy: Past, Present and Future

Managing the rise of China constitutes one of the most important challenges facing the United States in the early 21st century. China has always been an important state in the international system because of its large territory, vast resources, and huge population. But its significance for international politics has dramatically increased since 1978, when the market reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping placed China on a course that could lead to rapid transformation of potential resources that had remained untapped. This process is significant not only because it promises the internal transformation of one of the world’s oldest civilizations but also because - if concluded successfully - it could result in a dramatic power transition within the international system. The rise of China is consequently of great analytical and policy interest, and examining the determinates of China’s grand strategy is critical to any assessment of current and future Chinese security behavior, especially Chinese behavior toward the United States and its allies. This book identifies and analyzes the major factors determining Chinese grand strategy - past, present, and future - to better understand the motives behind Chinese strategic behavior and to assess how such behavior might evolve in the future. The ultimate purpose of such analysis is to more clearly understand whether, and in what manner, China’s grand strategy might pose fundamental challenges to U.S. strategic interests.