The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets

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Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that much literature on the subject contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modelling short term currency movements and modelling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative forecasting results. This text examines this issue.