Hits and Misses in the Major League Draft: What the Top Picks Teach Us About Picking Tomorrow’s Baseball Stars

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If unpredictability is so much of what makes sports compelling, the baseball draft might be the best place to look for capriciousness. This book explores the intricate uncertainties of the draft and the people who face it. Since the modern draft began in 1965, major league teams have attempted, with varying degrees of success, to identify and develop stars of the future. Whether because of injury, poor performance or mental and physical struggles, a large percentage of the most ballyhooed prospects never reach the game’s highest level.

The authors tell the stories of players drafted in the first round between 1990 and 2006, a period marked by the rise of
superagents
and Latin American talent. All of them played a role in a merciless weeding-out process that separates the best from the busts. Readers are brought behind the scenes of a pre-draft showcase, meet a former first-round selection whose career fizzled, and learn how three teams used the draft in remarkably distinct ways. Though teams have improved in recent years at turning top picks into major leaguers, the baseball draft is still centred on educated guesswork. This book explains why.