Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J.Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
Format
Hardback
Publisher
John Wiley and Sons Ltd
Country
United States
Published
22 August 2006
Pages
338
ISBN
9780470029992

Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts’ Probabilities

Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J.Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research; detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities; providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs; using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences; and, including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

This item is not currently in-stock. It can be ordered online and is expected to ship in 7-14 days

Our stock data is updated periodically, and availability may change throughout the day for in-demand items. Please call the relevant shop for the most current stock information. Prices are subject to change without notice.

Sign in or become a Readings Member to add this title to a wishlist.