Tilapia is the world’s most popular aquaculture species, farmed mostly in earthen ponds. Experience in China, the largest tilapia-farming country, has been used to develop and calibrate a bioeconomic model of intensive tilapia pond culture. The model is used to simulate the impacts of climate, technical and/or economic factors on farming performance and examines the performance of various farming arrangements under different conditions. The results collected in this publication indicate that an increase in feed price, an increase in mortality, or a decrease in fish price significantly reduce profitability; whereas an increase in the cost of seed, labour, rent, electricity or water management has smaller impacts on profitability. Also, considering the impact of water temperature on fish growth, the profitability of a production cycle starting at the optimum time may be twice as high as one starting at the worst possible time. Moreover, optimal farming arrangements that maximize overall profitability can significantly improve economic performance. The model could become a decision-making tool to help farmers design optimal farming arrangements.