Russia's Comparative Advantages in Foreign Trade: Forecasting Potential Dynamics and Identifying Stimulation Measures

Ivan Savin

Russia's Comparative Advantages in Foreign Trade: Forecasting Potential Dynamics and Identifying Stimulation Measures
Format
Hardback
Publisher
Peter Lang AG
Country
Switzerland
Published
29 November 2012
Pages
135
ISBN
9783631639931

Russia’s Comparative Advantages in Foreign Trade: Forecasting Potential Dynamics and Identifying Stimulation Measures

Ivan Savin

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Identifying factors which stimulate regional growth and international competitiveness and using them for forecasting are the aims of this book. Departing from the theory of comparative advantages and their impact, the author demonstrates that such an approach has to be based on a sound theoretical foundation and on appropriate, advanced econometric methods. He proposes the use of heuristic optimization techniques, Monte Carlo simulation experiments and Lasso-type estimators to avoid bias or misleading findings, which might be the result of applying standard regression methods when key assumptions are not satisfied. In addition, the author demonstrates how some heuristic optimization-based methods can be used to obtain forecasts of industrial production in Russia and Germany founded on past observations and some leading indicators.

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