Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Senior Fellow Douglas W Elmendorf (The Brookings Institution)

Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Format
Paperback
Publisher
Bibliogov
Country
United States
Published
6 February 2013
Pages
44
ISBN
9781288722150

Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Senior Fellow Douglas W Elmendorf (The Brookings Institution)

This paper uses news reports about two deficit-reduction laws of the past decade to identify days when expected fiscal policy clearly became more or less expansionary. The paper also proposes a technique for identifying whether the real interest rate increased or decreased on those days, based on changes in the nominal interest rate, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and stock prices. As economic theory predicts, higher expected government spending and budget deficits raised real interest rates and the value of the dollar, while lower expected spending and deficits reduced real rates and the value of the dollar.

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