Encryption is a process for making information unreadable by an adversary who does not possess a specific key that is required to make the encrypted information readable. The inverse process, making information that has been encrypted readable, is referred to as decryption. Cryptography has become widespread and is used by private as well as governmental actors. It also enables authentication and underlies the safe use of the Internet and computer systems by individuals and organizations worldwide. Emerging cryptographic technologies offer capabilities such as the ability to process encrypted information without first decrypting it.

At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, this report identifies potential scenarios that would describe the balance between encryption and decryption over the next 10 to 20 years and assesses the national security and intelligence implications of each scenario. For each of these scenarios, Cryptography and the Intelligence Community identifies risks, opportunities, and actions. Attention to the findings should enable the Intelligence Community to prepare for the future and to recognize emerging trends and developments and respond appropriately.

Table of Contents

Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction 2 Introduction to Encryption 3 Methodology 4 Drivers 5 Scenarios 6 Implications for U.S. Intelligence 7 Findings Appendixes Appendix A: Statement of Task Appendix B: Meeting Agendas Appendix C: Potential Scenarios Appendix D: Global Trends 2040 Appendix E: Acronyms and Abbreviations Appendix F: Committee Member Biographical Information