Using examples from strategic planning, acquisition management, logistics, manpower, crisis decisionmaking, and organization and management, this report summarizes 20 years of RAND’s uncertainty analysis for national security. Highlights include RAND’s…

Defense analysis can better serve policymakers by exploiting improvements in the state of the art and by rediscovering and supplementing classic principles. These relate to multiple objectives and hedging against…

U.S. defense planning is beset with technology-related problems for force projection, obsolescence of forces and concepts of operations, and the need for a new Asian-Pacific strategy. Finding the way ahead…

This report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Two approaches are…

An overview of higher-level decisionmaking and modern methods to improve decision support.

RAND researchers describe an experimental thinking-Red approach to analysis, wargaming, and other exercises to help inform strategies to avoid aggression or escalation in a crisis. It features alternative models of…

A debate will likely occur in 2009 about US global national-security strategy. This monograph describes a portfolio-analysis approach for integrated comparison of alternative strategies, in terms of effectiveness, risks, and…

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles–some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices–then discusses steps that deserve priority…