Modelling Bubbles and Crashes in Economics

John Fry

Modelling Bubbles and Crashes in Economics
Format
Paperback
Publisher
VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG
Country
Germany
Published
30 March 2010
Pages
68
ISBN
9783639228717

Modelling Bubbles and Crashes in Economics

John Fry

This title is printed to order. This book may have been self-published. If so, we cannot guarantee the quality of the content. In the main most books will have gone through the editing process however some may not. We therefore suggest that you be aware of this before ordering this book. If in doubt check either the author or publisher’s details as we are unable to accept any returns unless they are faulty. Please contact us if you have any questions.

The idea has recently emerged from the physics literature that it might be possible to develop a mathematical theory of financial crashes. This book deals with practical statistical aspects of the theory. A probabilistic model for bubbles is developed and applied to the recent English housing bubble. It is found that there was a nationwide housing bubble in English house prices in the years 2002-2007. Typically prices were 30-40% over-valued and fell around 20%. London is atypical in that the level of over-pricing was lower, only around 20%, and experienced a drop in prices of only around 15%. There is also some suggestion of contagious effects, with the bubble in London affecting prices in Yorkshire and the North. Additional topics discussed include the application of power-laws to market crashes and methods for illiquidity crisis models - dealing with the transfer of shocks across economic systems. This work will be of interest to market analysts and those at the interface of academic and commercial work in particular. Whilst containing some deeply mathematical themes, the book is nonetheless intended to be usable and some computer code is contained in an Appendix.

This item is not currently in-stock. It can be ordered online and is expected to ship in 7-14 days

Our stock data is updated periodically, and availability may change throughout the day for in-demand items. Please call the relevant shop for the most current stock information. Prices are subject to change without notice.

Sign in or become a Readings Member to add this title to a wishlist.