Future Trends in Microelectronics: Reflections on the Road to Nanotechnology

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Silicon technology has developed along virtually one single line: reducing the minimal size of lithographic features. But has this taken us to the point of diminishing returns? Are we now at a turning point in the logical evolution of microelectronics? Some believe that the semiconductor microelectronics industry has matured: the research game is over (comparisons with the steel industry are being made). Others believe that qualitative progress in hardware technology will come roaring back, based on innovative research. This debate, spirited as it is, is reflected in this text, which discusses such questions as: What kind of research does the silicon industry need to continue its expansion? What is the technical limit to shrinking Si devices? Is there any economic sense in pursuing this limit? What are the most attractive applications of optoelectronic hybrid systems? Are there any green pastures beyond the traditional semiconductor technologies? Identifying the scenario for the future evolution of microelectronics will present a tremendous opportunity for constructive action today.